Noli Irritare Leones

The peace agreement that ended the decades long civil war between northern and southern Sudan called for a referendum in which the people of Southern Sudan would get to vote on whether to become independent. Here’s what the timeline looks like now:

At the core of the current political crisis are delays in implementing key benchmarks laid out in the 2005 deal, known as the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. The referendum on independence for the South, a key pillar of the arrangement, is due in January 2011. Before that referendum takes place, Sudan must hold national elections. These are now set for April 2010.

The elections to be held in April, therefore, are a subject of considerable contention.

A sham poll would most likely lead to a new escalation of violence in Darfur and compromise the holding of the referendum. And if the referendum does not go ahead on schedule, the South will probably declare unilateral independence, plunging. Sudan back into civil war.

Tensions have been rising between the NCP in the north and the SPLM in the South. In October, the southern leader, Salva Kiir, for the first time openly called for the South to secede from Sudan. Both sides are rearming….

Human rights groups are already warning about escalating violence in Southern Sudan, that could disrupt the upcoming elections.

The people of southern Sudan are trapped in a worsening crisis, following the most violent year since the 2005 peace agreement that ended more than two decades of civil war with the North. However, the response to the escalating emergency is inadequate, says international medical relief organisation, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF).

Meanwhile, the government of Sudan has just reneged on a deal setting the terms on which southern Sudan could vote on independence.

The United States has condemned the Sudanese ruling party for introducing last-minute unilateral changes to the law under which southern Sudanese will vote on whether they want independence.

The Sudan Tribune reports from Khartoum that when the bill providing for a referendum on independence for Southern Sudan went to the National Assembly on Tuesday, members of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) scrapped a provision that southerners who wanted to vote had to register and vote in the south….

In Darfur, the peace process has reached a “critical” juncture, according to the Secretary-General of the UN.

… Civil society and armed movements have agreed to re-start consultations in Doha on 18 January, to be followed by direct talks between the Government and movements on 24 January in Qatar’s capital.

“Efforts must continue to encourage the Government, and more especially the rebel movements, to make concessions, and embrace the consensus which Mr. Bassolé is building,” the Secretary-General underscored….

In eastern Chad, malnutrition persists well into the harvest season, and some NGOs are cutting back services for fear of kidnapping, as security continues to deteriorate. The UN has started a program to train local judges to end impunity.

The Central African Republic is also preparing for elections in 2010, and the UN urges security sector reform ahead of the polls.

The Lord’s Resistance Army continues to be a plague on the whole region, with cells in Uganda, Sudan, the Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. A recent UN report says that the group has killed 1200 people in the DRC in 10 months. It was reported last month that sixty-four LRA rebels returned home from the DRC and surrendered since October; that’s the most recent report I see of progress on the LRA front.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009 at 7:36 am and is filed under Darfur/Chad/Central African Republic. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.